How will third-party cookies will still impact digital advertising, even if they aren’t fully going away?
To opt-in or to opt-out, that is the question. Google has not given us any hints as to whether users will actively have to opt-in to third-party cookies on Chrome, but, given that Google’s stated reason for eliminating third-party is to improve user privacy, it is highly likely that users will be asked to opt-in to tracking.
The most comparable previous event is Apple’s rollout of the App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework in 2021, which required users to opt-in. Only 16% opted-in to tracking initially. Over time that number has increased to 34%, as apps are allowed to renew their opt-in requests (and some users have responded to those requests)—but that won’t apply to Chrome, because the user is making a browser-level decision not an app-specific decision. Given the latter, we expect opt-in rates well under 10% for Chrome.
All that said, although third-party cookies aren’t fully going away, signal loss will still occur—the proof is in Apple's mobile ad IDs (MAIDs).
Here are the aspects of advertising that will be most impacted by signal loss:
Reach: Without third-party cookies advertisers are scrambling for a way to reach their customers and prospects online, often turning to search, owned channels and walled gardens—to their own detriment.
Personalization: Behavioral and browsing data will be limited, making it hard for advertisers who depend on third-party cookies to personalize ads.
Campaign management: Basic capabilities like A/B testing and frequency capping will be challenging for advertisers who depend on third-party cookies.
Performance measurement: Analytics and attribution based on third-party cookies will be much less effective. We anticipate many advertising vendors will not be able to calculate metrics like ROAS anymore, and will turn to the less effective Media Mix Modeling (MMM).
Our research shows that 69% of advertisers think third-party cookie deprecation will have a bigger impact than the GDPR and CCPA, and 70% feel that digital advertising overall will take a step backward.
But despite the understanding of importance and concern, fewer than half (46%) feel “very prepared” for marketing without the third-party cookie.